As the Black Friday countdown begins, the e-commerce seller community is seeing a dramatic split. Some sellers are already hitting the bestseller lists with explosive growth, while many others are staring at a sudden, cliff-like drop in sales.
This isn't random. It's the result of several new, powerful trends converging at once. This year's peak season is not a "lay-up" — it's a new game with new rules.
Here is what's really going on.
1. The "Marathon" Season Is Killing Early Conversions
This year, "peak season" is a two-month-long marathon, not a weekend sprint.
- Amazon: Nov 20 – Dec 1
- TikTok Shop: Nov 12 – Dec 1
- Temu: Since Early Oct
This "war of attrition" has a major side-effect: it trains consumers to wait.
Buyers know that another, "better" deal is always just a few days away. This creates a pre-Black Friday slump where ad costs pile up, but consumers refuse to convert, holding out for the absolute lowest price.
Only "no-brainer" categories like gifts, holiday-themed items, and home decor are seeing an early, natural lift, while other categories are experiencing a painful sales delay.
2. The New "Compliance Wall" Is Crushing Some Categories
For some sellers, the sales drop isn't just about consumer trends—it's a direct result of new regulations.
Amazon has announced a strict new compliance rule for all toy sellers: EN 71 and EN 62115 safety reports must now be uploaded directly by the testing lab to Amazon's backend.
This seemingly small change has massive consequences:
- High Costs: Each test costs a minimum of €100 per product.
- Massive Delays: This adds a new, mandatory step that slows down new product launches.
- Disrupted Stock: Sellers have had their Christmas stocking plans thrown into chaos.
One toy seller reported a direct 50% drop in sales in November, with ad clicks falling by over 40%, as the entire category is "choked" by these new requirements.
3. Consumers Are "Waiting" and "Optimizing"
This year's shopper is more frugal and calculating than ever. According to a recent BCG report, 77% of consumers are deliberately delaying their purchases until Black Friday and Cyber Monday to buy in one concentrated burst.
They are not just waiting; they are optimizing with new tools:
- AI is Mainstream: A Klaviyo survey found over half of consumers are using AI to find deals, compare prices, and even check a product's historical price.
- Social Proof: TikTok remains the core traffic source for Gen Z, with one-third of all shoppers using social media for gift inspiration, per UserTesting.
- Secondhand Boom: A new trend is exploding. A ThredUp report claims nearly 40% of the holiday budget may go to secondhand gifts, with 66% of all consumers (and 80% of Millennials) willing to give them.
The takeaway: Your customers aren't gone; they are just waiting. They are being told to "hold" for the deepest discount, and they will use AI to prove it.
4. The "Returns Tsunami" Is Coming (And Amazon Knows It)
The final, overlooked risk is the longest holiday return window in history. All items sold from now through the end of the year can be returned until January 31, 2026.
This creates a massive, long-tail financial risk for sellers.
In response, Amazon has quietly launched the new "Returns Dashboard." This tool is designed to help sellers survive the coming wave. Its key functions are:
- ASIN-Level Risk: Identifies your most at-risk products for returns.
- Bad Review Alerts: Warns you if a product's "critical return-reason rate" exceeds 3%.
- Value Recovery: Helps you assess the resale value of returned items.
- Flexible Policies: Allows sellers to create rules, such as offering a "partial refund without return" for high-value items to cut losses.
This season, patience and strategy will win. Success won't be about just "turning on ads," but about navigating compliance, understanding the new AI-powered frugal shopper, and aggressively managing the returns that will inevitably follow.
19 Nov, 2025
