U.S.-China Tariff Reduction Sparks a Logistics Surge

As news of the U.S.-China tariff reduction officially broke, phones of e-commerce sellers began buzzing non-stop.

Emails from American clients, urgent notices from freight forwarders, and price hike warnings from shipping companies—within hours, what was typically a quiet May in the U.S.-China freight market turned into a frenzy. The sudden surge in demand has already led to a shortage of cargo space on shipping vessels.

“Our orders are overflowing!” exclaimed the head of a foreign trade company in Jiangsu Province, who received an email from a U.S. client in the middle of the night. The client urgently requested an additional $5 million worth of orders, asking for the fastest possible delivery to make up for lost time.

Similar scenes are unfolding across the industry: freight forwarders in Shenzhen are overwhelmed with requests for space, long lines of container trucks are forming at Ningbo Port, and shipping companies are scrambling to adjust their routes and capacity.

The dramatic reversal stems from a key line in the U.S.-China Geneva Joint Statement: "Suspend the additional 24% tariff for 90 days." With the tariff gap suddenly narrowing, the gears of cross-border trade have begun spinning at a breakneck speed.

But this isn’t just a simple market rebound—it’s a race against time. The 90-day tariff suspension is both an opportunity and a countdown. No one can predict what will happen after this window closes, leaving exporters, logistics companies, and shipping giants locked in a high-stakes game.

From “Order Drought” to “Cargo Overflow”

The latest data from trade tracking agency Vizion confirms the chaos. Following the U.S.-China tariff agreement, container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged by nearly 300%. Ben Tracy, Vizion’s Vice President of Strategic Business Development, noted that between May 5 and May 14, container bookings skyrocketed by 277%.

Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen shared on X (formerly Twitter), "In just 24 hours after the trade deal was announced, ocean orders for shipments to the U.S. jumped 35 percent, and a significant backlog is expected as ships quickly sell out."

According to international media, German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd reported a 50% increase in container volumes on its China-to-U.S. routes compared to the previous week, with overall booking volumes showing double-digit percentage growth.

To manage the surge, Hapag-Lloyd activated its emergency response plan. Its "Twin Star Network," a partnership with Maersk, began reallocating capacity, replacing smaller vessels with larger ones—an approach typically reserved for peak seasons but now being implemented immediately due to the tariff changes.

Danish analytics firm Sealntel revealed that the alliance’s current on-time performance rate is an impressive 90%, far exceeding the industry average of 50%-70%.

Tariffs Drop, But Freight Costs Skyrocket

“It’s no longer about choosing a shipping route—it’s about securing space,” said a logistics expert. With U.S.-bound shipments surging, freight rates are expected to climb even higher.

Over the past month, high tariffs had forced many U.S.-bound orders to be put on hold, leaving American companies with critically low inventory levels. Now, with tariffs temporarily suspended, businesses are rushing to ship out goods, further tightening cargo space availability.

However, the 90-day countdown has created uncertainty. Many exporters are rushing to stockpile inventory, unsure of what policy changes might come after the window closes.

Shipping companies have already begun raising prices. Here’s a summary of the latest rate hikes:  

Maersk CTO Vincent Clerc stated, “Although we’ve cut 20% of our China-to-U.S. capacity over the past two weeks and shifted it to other routes, we’re ready to restore that capacity quickly if demand continues to surge.”  

Despite rising costs, many sellers are determined to ship. One seller said, “Even if prices go up, we have to ship now, who knows what the situation will be like in three months?”

A Temporary Boom with Long-Term Uncertainty

With Amazon Prime Day just around the corner, the temporary tariff reduction has created a short-term boom, driving market competition to a fever pitch. Bloomberg reports that some retailers, wary of future tariff fluctuations, are already rushing to produce and ship goods for the Christmas season.

For small and medium-sized factories, however, the past few months of tariff uncertainty have been grueling. Many low-margin businesses heavily dependent on the U.S. market have struggled to stay afloat. At the height of the trade tensions, some U.S. buyers even shifted their orders to Southeast Asia.

Industry research shows that most U.S. businesses have only about six weeks of inventory left. The tariff reduction announcement came just as many were running out of stock, prompting B2B enterprises to ramp up production and shipments.

However, beneath the surface of this frenzy lies a sense of unease. Many e-commerce sellers remain cautious, opting to wait and see how the situation develops. What will happen after the 90-day window closes? No one has a definitive answer.

This sudden surge in trade activity highlights the fragility of global supply chains and the high stakes of international trade policy. While the 90-day tariff suspension offers temporary relief, the uncertainty of what comes next looms large over businesses on both sides of the Pacific.

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